Sri Lanka's former army chief Sarath Fonseka waves to supporters from his car after he submitted his applications for the presidential elections, in Colombo. –Reuters Photo

The other day, Nandi, our housekeeper, returned from her shopping expedition, and announced in a shocked voice that sugar had gone up to 109 rupees a kilo. In Sri Lanka, this works out to nearly a dollar, or about 85 Pakistani rupees.

Rice, the Sri Lankan staple, has shot up too. An interesting scam about rice was reported in the Sunday Leader: apparently, while the international price of the popular short grain variety is $360 per tonne, thousands of tonnes were imported from Pakistan at $520. The daily has named a minister as having masterminded this little transaction.

Allegations of sleaze are coming thick and fast as the country enters the final stretch of the presidential elections to be held on January 26. President Rajapakse’s immediate family are at the centre of many of these accusations. This perception that the First Family are raking it in while ordinary Sri Lankans are being crushed by mounting inflation may yet sink the Rajapakse presidency.

While the opposition camp led by retired General Fonseka are euphoric over their chances, there are voices counselling caution. More than one commentator has pointed out the large stake the ruling family has in winning this election. Others have written about how to counter efforts to rig the poll.

Electoral violence is steadily mounting; the other day, a bus carrying Fonseka supporters was shot up by young men on motorbikes. One woman died, and several people were badly wounded. As this incident happened close to where we live, there was much discussion among our staff and neighbours. The consensus was that this kind of thuggery showed the desperation of the presidential camp. Apparently, the official campaign in the south is being managed by the president’s 20-year old son who has set up a squad of Rajapakse’s supporters called the ‘Blue Battalion’. The young man also controls a huge budget for TV and press ads. Evidence of this lavish expenditure is everywhere.

Despite this media blitz, Fonseka continues to make steady inroads. When you ask a Sri Lankan who’ll win, he or she will usually say “Fifty-fifty”. Even if this is true, it represents a stunning turnaround: when Rajapakse announced the election, the result seemed a foregone conclusion. Riding high in the aftermath of the victory over the LTTE, nobody dreamed that the president could be challenged; certainly nobody in his right mind would have said “Fifty-fifty” a few weeks ago.

The intensity of the campaign can be gauged by the fact that although the Elections Commissioner has repeatedly instructed district officials to pull down illegal election posters (or ‘cut-outs’ as they are called here), the president’s image is everywhere. So frustrated is this official that he has threatened to ‘disengage’ from the whole exercise. In an editorial on the subject, the Sunday Island writes:

“Not surprisingly, the Elections Commissioner is up against a troubling dilemma. He is a public servant around whom the people’s hopes resolve of having a free and fair election, but it is plain to see that his diktat is being respected more in the breach. The continuing violation of electoral laws bears this out. For instance his ban on cut-outs and posters is being treated with gleeful disdain in some quarters. Reportedly, the directives of the competent authority, appointed by him to oversee sections of the media in regard to fair reporting and comment, are being nonchalantly disregarded. So much so that the irresponsible are having their way and these senior public servants have been reduced to a state of helplessness.”

This attitude towards constitutional safeguards shows the decline in democratic values that is causing so much concern and anguish among the island’s civil society. The other day, the Sunday Leader reported that its offices had been raided by uniformed police because of reports they had received that the newspaper was printing anti-government material. This kind of intimidation of the media has become the norm over the last few years.

The previous editor of the Leader was murdered a year ago, and thus far, investigations have led nowhere. Before his death, he had written an open letter addressed to the president to be published in the event of his death. This poignant posthumous statement accused certain people close to Mr Rajapakse of being behind his anticipated murder. Other journalists have been killed, beaten up and jailed. Many have fled into exile. Thus far, not a single one of these crimes has led to an arrest or a prosecution.

Many Sri Lankans view this election as being the country’s last chance of pulling their democratic system back from the brink. There is a very real fear that Sri Lanka may descend into a police state if things continue moving in the present direction. Despite the dangers, the Sunday Leader bravely continues to expose scams and name names. Should the president win, I fear a day of reckoning will soon come for the newspaper.

As a friend of Sri Lanka, I can only hope that the elections go off without further violence, and the result is a fair reflection of the popular will. So far, in the absence of any opinion polls, I can only report that it’s “Fifty-fifty”; but if I were to place a bet, it would be on Fonseka.

Footnote: Apart from the election, I have been following the tragic events in Haiti. That unfortunate island has been wracked with more than its fair share of natural and manmade catastrophes. The recent earthquake has claimed around 100,000 lives, according to conservative estimates, and the death toll may be even higher.

Despite the immensity of the tragedy, Pakistan’s response has been shamefully muted. Apart from official expressions of regret and horror, we have failed to make even a token offer of assistance. Considering that when the killer quake hit the north of Pakistan four years ago, the whole world came to our help, this is a disgraceful response to a major humanitarian disaster. To my knowledge, only the Edhi Foundation has offered to help, but the government’s response has been mean-spirited and tardy. Surely we can send a team of doctors and medical supplies. As I wrote a few days ago, we seem so preoccupied by our perpetual infighting that we have forgotten there is a larger world out there.