Supporters of Sri Lanka's main opposition presidential candidate and former army chief General Sarath Fonseka attends his first political rally in Colombo on January 4, 2010. – Photo by AFP.

Back in Sri Lanka after a hectic fortnight in Karachi, I was having breakfast in the veranda of the Galle Face hotel in Colombo, reading the local Daily Mirror to catch up on news. This hotel was built in 1864, and has played host to many famous people whose comments are inscribed on a large board. One of them was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto who stayed here briefly in the Sixties.

For some weeks now, the media here has been full of charges and denials made against and on behalf of ex-army chief and presidential candidate Sarath Fonseka. As the campaign for the election due to be held on January 27 heats up, more and more accusations are being made by both sides. Last month, the main opposition newspaper, the Sunday Leader, published a front-page interview with Fonseka in which he made a very serious allegation against the government of Mahinda Rajapaksa.

According to the general, in the last few days of the fighting in the war against the Tamil Tigers in the North last May, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, the President’s brother and defence secretary, ordered the army to kill any LTTE fighters who were trying to surrender. The newspaper specifically quoted Fonseka as saying that he was out of the country, and these orders went directly to the brigadier leading the final assault. This allegation is partly corroborated by reports in the Western press last summer in which it was reported that senior LTTE cadres, advancing towards the Sri Lankan army lines carrying white flags, were gunned down. Apparently, they had been in touch with Western intermediaries who had contacted authorities in Colombo to obtain safe-passage.

Coming as it did on the heels of other serious charges of human rights abuses during the final days of the war, General Fonseka’s allegation was a huge embarrassment for the Sri Lankan army and government. Ever since the Sunday Leader published this interview last month, the President’s campaign team and the state media have been hammering away at the opposition candidate’s supposed lack of patriotism. He has been accused of turning against the army in his desire to win the election.

Initially, General Fonseka stood by his accusation, but when he saw the backlash developing, he said he had been misquoted. However, the interviewer (who is also the editor of the Sunday Leader), Fredrica Jansz, has firmly denied that she got the general wrong. Apparently, she took the precaution of calling him after the interview to ask him to re-confirm the damaging charge he had laid. According to her, Fonseka was categorical in stating that she had reflected his views accurately.

This episode underlines his inexperience as a politician. A wooden speaker, he has little to offer the electorate excepting his image as an authentic war hero. However, the opposition parties backing him and running his campaign feel his outstanding army record would dent Rajapaksa’s claim of having led the country to victory in its 25-year civil war that has claimed over 80,000 lives – around 10,000 in the last couple of months of the conflict alone.

The taxi driver who drove us into town from the airport made no secret of where his loyalties lie: he said he had bet a hundred thousand rupees on the President. On the way, he accused the opposition of trying to bring down the government of the great leader who had finally won the war. When I gently told him that people in the South – Rajapaksa’s stronghold – were fed up with high prices, unemployment, and above all by alleged corruption at the very highest levels of government, our driver exploded. “Where’s the proof?” he demanded, in a familiar echo from Pakistan.

In the fortnight since I was last here, some of the wind seems to have gone out of General Fonseka’s sail. The initial excitement about his candidacy has inevitably evaporated, and the controversial war crimes charges have played a part in this slippage. As it is, the opposition is fighting an uphill battle, trying to oust a sitting president who controls all the levers of power. With three brothers in the government, he has many allies who have benefited from his first term. However, the fact that several of his supporters have gone across to the opposition is revealing of how close this electoral battle still is.

Another major factor in this campaign is the President’s folksy manner and human touch. He is a good communicator, and his public speeches are laced with appeals to the ordinary voter. And despite the Election Commission’s directive to remove hoardings and posters, the President’s grinning face is everywhere. One zealous police officer who had these images removed found himself transferred to Kilinochchi, a war-ravaged town in the North. Only the intervention of the Election Commission saved him from this bureaucratic limbo. However, if the incumbent wins the election, the police officer should think of an alternative career…

One imponderable in this election is how the minority Tamils will vote. Indications thus far are that this crucial vote will be split. After the demise of the LTTE, no party has yet filled the vacuum. A number of Tamil parties purport to speak for them, but no clear line seems to have emerged. So far, indications are that this important vote will be split. Some Muslims – around 10 per cent of the population – appear to be leaning towards the government. This is especially true of the ones in the North and East who have been promised resettlement in the lands they were evicted from by the LTTE.

Not surprisingly, Fonseka is very popular in the army, and there are reports that many soldiers will take leave before the elections to guard polling stations to ensure that government supporters do not meddle. Rigging remains the wild card: observers feel that if Fonseka has a lead of over six per cent or so, it will be difficult for the ruling coalition to produce the numbers needed for victory. The presence of an independent Election Commissioner will also help the cause of a free election.

Yet another imponderable is how Sri Lankan women will vote. Given the high level of inflation, many of them have been hit hard by the government’s inability to control prices. Even though GDP per capita in Sri Lanka is nearly double India’s and Pakistan’s, this is still a poor country where the prices of basics figure high in household budgets. Young people, too, feel marginalised in a tough job market. Many of them feel the free-market UNP, a key opposition party, will be more effective in creating new jobs.

So the jury is still out on who will be the new president. If Fonseka can build up some extra momentum before January 27, he could still spring a surprise.